THE BIG GUNS CAN'T KEEP IT UP

The US music industry clearly hasn't sued enough people, to judge by the way they turned a rise in sales across 2004 into a 10% drop in CDs across the year. The reason?

Well, a couple of percent were down to the odd shape of 2004, which had 53 trading weeks in it; but beyond that, the big hitters released duff albums which sold well on their debut week to fans, but held little interest for anyone beyond. For example, Alicia Keys Unplugged did quite well in its first week, selling about a fifth of a million units. However, there was no interest beyond that, and subsequently it dropped 57% and 40% week-on-week. The absurd decision to let Ashlee Simpson have another go might have looked like it was paying off when 220,000 danced out the stores in its first week. But then word of mouth led to a second week sale of about 70,000; week three it struggled to find 55,000 takers.

Madonna is a shining example of how the industry has managed to create large stars out of people nobody much wants to hear doing what they're meant to be famous for. 350,000 copies sold in the first week; but after every gay bloke of a certain age had got his copy, the market seemed to dry up - 213,000 in week two; barely 109,000 in its third.

Now, the music industry will probably be quick to blame this on the internet and people stealing the records instead of buying them. They may have a slight point - the opportunity to sample Confessions on a Dance Floor before purchase may well have put off lots of people who otherwise would have gone out and made a disappointing purchase, but "filesharing is making it hard for us to shift rubbish records" is a slogan they'll not be keen to slap on the back of jewel cases any time soon. But could purchasers who might have liked the tracks been taking for free rather than buying them down WalMart? Maybe, except the only album in the last three months of the year to spend more than a single week at the top of the chart was Eminem's Greatest Hits. So, the most successful album comprised almost entirely of tracks you could pick up off the first incarnation of Napster, and which would already have been in most fan's possessions one way or another. It all suggests people will buy decent stuff they already own if the package is right, but have no intention of shelling out for substandard stuff they don't already have.

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